Time Series Analysis Part 5 (All models are wrong)

“Come and join us, and we will show you how to predict the future”.

I tend to get invitations like this all time. Friendly people from marketing want to meet me and eventually sell tools or services to predict the future. So, it makes me wonder, if they actually have a machine to predict the future, why on earth are they spending their energy selling software and organizing events? Perhaps, you could pause for a second and consider what would you do if you had such a machine?

Although artificial intelligence has led to remarkable achievements in recent years, expectations for what the field is able and will be able to achieve in the next decade tend to run much higher than what will actually turn out to be possible. While some world-changing applications like autonomous cars are already within reach, many more are likely to remain elusive for a long time.

Continue reading

Time Series Analysis Part 2 (ARIMA)

‘Time’ is the most important factor which ensures success in a business. It’s difficult to keep up with the pace of time.  But, technology has developed some powerful methods to enable us to ‘see things’ ahead of time.  One such method, which deals with time-based data is Time Series Modeling. As the name suggests, it involves working on time (years, days, hours, minutes) based data, to derive hidden insights to make informed decision making.

Continue reading